BLAMING THE NEIGHBOUR(Amended) (Indian Express: 30-11-2015)

When PM Modi took the post and toured Nepal it seemed like we are entering into a new era of cooperation and friendship. And why not India and Nepal has been more than a neighbour since India's independence. India kept its borders and jobs opened for nepalese people. But since new constitution of Nepal has passed this september India-Nepal relations took a sour turn.

What is the issue?

Nepal's new constitution divided whole country into 7 states and gave more representation to hill area tribes into legislature while populations of terai region inhabitants is more. Hence they agitated and started to demonstrate. India did not like this division as it should be based on proportional representation based on population. Due to this standoff passage for providing supplies are blocked by India according to nepal while India says that no man land is quite agitated land due to madhesi's opposition hence it is dangerous to open passage till all get silent. Hence India want nepal to give heed to terai inhabitant i.e. Madhesis's concern. And Nepal is considering it as interference by India.

India's Concerns
a) As terai region comprises most out of 1750 long Nepal border with India hence any sort of disturbance their will create security issues directly for India.
b) India could face deluge of refugees as many Madhesis have marital or economic relations with Indians.

Profit to China:- Because of this debacle in relationships between India and Nepal, China proposed and being accepted by Nepal has started to supply essential commodities to Nepal. China has opened two checkposts and ready to open more if required. This is a geographical and diplomatic victory for china as this friendly gesture will improve chinese penetration into Nepal's economy and political matters which hitherto was closed. Resultantly Indian effect will diminsh.

What India should do now?
India should look for peaceful talk with nepal not in big brotherly tone but as an equal neighbour and try to put its concern to Nepal regarding Madhesis and other constitutional matters. Any harsh and hurried decision could shift Nepal towards china and the long relationship not only geographically but culturally between India and Nepal can get serious hit.

What Nepal's stand should be now?
Nepal should know that India has been the sole mate of nepal throughout many decades and its population has all those rights in India which no other country has. And looking help from China can be an emergency measure but not permanent solution. As geographical barrier in the form of Himalaya makes Chinese help tough to reach to Nepal. Hence Nepal should also look to solve this situation by talking to India and pay heed to its concern as possible.

Going Solar ( Indian Express: 26-11-2015)

Indian Government has planned for setting up 100000 MW of solar generating capacity by 2022. To achieve this environment friendly ambitious target auctions are going, MOUs are being finalised to set up solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants in various parts of the country. But one thing which government should give heed to is these PV power plants can work only during day i.e. they can produce electricity only for day not night. Hence Government is also planning to more than double its coal-fired power output by setting up 455 more coal-based power plants by 2030 to meet base load demand. It will nullify the positive impacts of PV power plants by polluting environment. And international community may also impose severe penalties or will not allow on such huge social cost of burning coal---severe air pollution, increased mortality, destruction of the environment and expropriation of the poor from coal-bearing lands.
What can be the solution or alternative to these coal-fired power plants for base load demand? Yes there is, Concentrated solar thermal power (CSP). The benefits of CSP are-
a) CSP plant can provide power day and night.
b) No or very less need of fossil fuel backup hence do not need to be paired up with conventional coal or nuclear power plants.
c) They can store sun's energy for long periods at very little cost, and with negligible loss. This is how they provide power at night too.
d) Another significant advantage is that CSP plants can produce steam at well above 593 degree celsius required for supercritical power stations and can, therefore, be used with the same ultramodern turbines that are being used in our ultra-mega power plants.
This is totally a viable propostion as already 61 operational solar thermal power plants are in the world with generating capacity of 4228 MW. This became possible when Gemasolar a 20 MW power plant established in spain in 2011. Specifications of Gemasolar are-
a) It can store 6500 hours of power a year i.e. 10% more than coal fired power plants generate in India.
b) Gemasolar stores 15 hours of extra heat during the daytime to run the turbines at night and in bad weather.
c) Because of extra storage it keeps only 15% backup of natural gas to guarantee power on demand, overall cheaper than PV.
But this does not mean that all solar power plants should be CSP as cheapness can be deceptive too. For example a place like thar desert most viable for solar energy production have two complications-
a) PV panels lose half a percent of their efficiency for every degree of temperature rise above ambient levels. This amounts to a 2% fall in delivered power for every extra degree of heat.
b) PV power also needs to be stepped up to grid voltages. This increases the cost of transimission by up to three times.
Hence this target of 100000 MW target needs to be divided into two sections to utilise the resources properly and provide power under the cost for both day and night-
a) reserves the bulk of the extra-capacity solar thermal power generaion
b) issues separte tenders for each part.

Not without our girls ( The Hindu: 25-11-2015)

The world is talking about our demographic dividend and our government also want to utilise it. But before that an age old concern must have a fresh look. It has been proved again through the new data of census that India prefers male child at the cost of female one. Beside this known phenomenon there is illusionary conception of birth advantage for male child. Survey says-

---22 million women said they had a girl and 28.5 said they had a boy, clear proof of large no. of male child been born.

Even we give slight genetical and biological advantage to male child of getting born more in comparison to female one, this huge difference indicate towards pre-natal sex selection. This unnatural disadvantage is more in small families. Survey says-

---half of all families have a boy and girl, another one-third have both boys and only one-sixth have both girls.

If we see large families there are more girls in comparion boys because of two reasons-

---family gone for repeated pregnencies till the male got born.

---family is too poor/lack of access to perform pre natal sex selection.

And it is proved by the fact that the youngest member of larger families is boy. These large families are either marginalised sections or poor ones.

One more thing got proved that without genuine transformation in gender relations the push for small families lead to more pre natal sex selection. As the drive for small families has become social norm in urban locations more male child are born.

At the other hand southern states of India has achieved remarkable success in lowering fertility to the extent that they have reached replacement levels of fertility ( Replacement fertility rate is the total fertility rate, the average number of child born per woman, at which a population extactly replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration. This rate is roughly one 2.1 child per woman for most of the countries.), at which population growth will stop and stabilise. The most admirable thing is that it happened without coercive method of one child policy like China. The main reasons for driving down fertility rate were-

---adequate education, access to health and economic prosperity, particularly for women.

Perceiving this India must down its fertility rate and go for smaller families but not at the cost of girl child. A meaning full conversation on gender equality, backed with gender equal economic regime will be fruitful otherwise just simply going forward at the cost of one sex will be a hollow demographic transition.

The Pulse of the matter (Indian Exress: 25-11-2015)

The Price of pulses esp. arhar had reached upto the level of 200rs per kg recently. Both government and consumers seemed helpless. Not only pulses but onion in recent times also went berserk. It is not that production of these crops was very low in comparison to demand then what was the reason of these touching paramount level?
-- hoarding by middlemen and the sellers to maximise the profit.

Do farmers also get profit of these high prices?
Obviously not, Whether prices are high or low in retail market or production is low or high farmers never get the proportional price at which produce is being sell in the retail market. Recent example of potato can be cited. Because of a bumper production, prices have crashed. A kilogram of potato is fetching just Rs 4-5 in the wholesale market.

Reason of farmers incurring low price on their produce- The general complaint of farmers is that everyone is willing to selel inputs to them but no one cares about the sale of their produce at remunerative prices. All scientific inventions and technological intervention give imphasis on rasing production. Main reasons of farmers incur low prices are-
a) high input cost in comparison to price they get on sale of production.
b) high production bring market prices low force farmers to sell their produce at low prices
c) debt ridden farmers are forced to sell their produce immediately after harvest when the prices are at lowest.

This whole process from production to sale does not even profitable to consumers as when prices are high in retail markets (due less supply of product caused by hoarding) product is being introduced for selling and 4-5 rs kg potato continues to buy at Rs 15-20. In this whole process only traders gain.

Dilemma with pulses- In country like India most of the people are vegetarian hence pulses comprises main constituent of daily diet. But they are getting out of the reach of common man. Main reasons of high prices of pulses-
a) Unlike corn and paddy, a hybrid variety of pulses has not been very effective in enhancing the yield.
b) More research is required for increasing production of pulses.
c) Due to low production 15-20 % short supply of pulses in market.
d) Problems in availability of seeds.
e) Hugh amount of hoarding by middle man.
f) In North India damage caused by blue bulls to the crop and farmers do not kill them as they are called 'Neel Gai' in hindi so religious emotions come to the fore.

In the face of such hurdles some solutions can be cited and applied with the cooperation of both Government and people to increase pulse production of rein in prices-
a) As hybrid seeds are less effective in perspective of pulses so production level can be increased by increasing the acreage under pulses.
b) Substitution of arhar dal by matar dal or rajma may also be helpful but it require behavioural change among farmers for which adequate campaign can be launched by government.
c) Buffer stock should be maintained by government to release them in the markets to stabilise prices when they start to rise.
d) Blue bulls should be stopped from damaging crops. Government also issue licence to kill them as they belong to antelope family not cow.

In midst of all these most of the farmers choose to tread on safe path by sowing wheat and rice. But wheat-rice cycle year after year is damaging the fertility of the soil as well and on the other hand pulses rejuvenates the soil by fixing the nitrogen and they are rain-fed hence requires less amount of water in comparison to rice and wheat. Two courses can be taken by government-
a) Subsidies should be provided on inputs hence to nullify their effect on total production cost.
b) MSP should be provided and when required increased.

In this whole discussion the point to ponder over is proper returns to farmers. As 80% indian farmers are small and marginal and 60% operate on less than 1 hectare land size with rising input cost and low returns on selling of produce make agriculture unattractive for them. But they still continue to indulge in this profession due to lack of alternative. Hence government should take proper steps to make farming profitable for farmers in particular and public in general.

Japan's counter to China's silk road (Indian Express: 24-11-2015)

China is vigoursly promoting and moving forward on its premier One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. This is alarming for Japan as Japan is decades old player in exporting infrastrasture projects and now its dominance is being challenged by china.

Why OBOR by China?

a)      China is armed with massive cash reserves.

b)      China has huge surplus of industrial capacity which demands to be utilised properly as local market is reaching the saturation point.

c)      Revive ancient silk route and spread dominance of china in the world.

How china will do that?

a)      By building roads, airports, power projects, and high-speed railway systems all across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific.

b)      By bringing countries ranging from Britain to Brunei and Tanzania to Tajiskistan under its projects.

c)      By establishment of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to lend loans for infrastructure projects in Asia.

Japan’s activism against this initiative- Japanese PM Shinzo abe has now laid out a framework for competing with China on the export of mega infrastructure projects. Various measures to counter China’s rising effect and revive its dominance are-

a)      Declaration of $110 billion to promote “quality infrastructuree” in Asia over the next five years.

b)      Japan’s emphasis on “high quality” in projects which has been higher than Chinese ones.

c)      Focus on “sustainable infrastructure development” in comparison to China.

d)      Touring across Asia and pitiching for Japna’s project exports.

e)      Japan is trying to rejuvenate the Asian Development Bank by liberalise the ADB’s terms of lending to counter the China’s Asian infrastructure investment Bank (AIIB) established recently.

f)       Japanese technology and finance have been at the forefront of building road and rail corridors and airorts, including in China

g)      But Japan’s overseas assistance arm the Japanese International cooperation agency (JICA) has been expensive and lacked a larger strategic framework to guide its infrastructure promotion hence traditional development aid has now acquired a strategic dimension under Abe, as he tries to fend off China’s drive to expand its economic and political influence in asia.

Intense competition and Japan’s regaining ground

In this counter drive against China’s initiative, Japan is raising issue of Chinese projects’s hidden costs which will inventually cost OBOR initiative is showing effect. As Srilanka’s new government in Colombo has sought to review the terms and conditions of the various mega projects that the Rajapaksa regime had signed with Chinese companies.

While Japan lost some big deals to China i.e a high speed train line between Jakarta and Bandung meanwhile it won a bid in Bangladesh for construction of a port at the Matarbari island on the south eastern coast. Japan has begun to edge out Chinese competition elsewhere too.

Amidst all this uproar of OBOR and Japan’s counter of it India can avail of this unfolding economic rivalry. Benefits to India-

a)      India Pm Modi has put building world-class infrastructure at the centre of his domestic agenda hence chance to mobilise unprecedented support from China and Japan.

b)      Japan’s new activism will allow Delhi to mitigate some of the perceived threats from China’s growing economic presence in the subcontinent and beyond.

c)      Although China is limiting India’s room for manoeuvre in the subcontinent and the Indian ocean, Japan promises to create new opportunities for leading regional economic integration in its neighbourhood.

d)      India quickly joined both AIIB and Brics Bank considering these as anti western financial institutions. But China’s proposal of linking subcontinent to China is matter of reluctance for India as this infrastructural route passes from Aksai China and POK. But PM is bit more open towards Chinese investments and asking them to take a feasibility study on a high speed train corridor between Chennai and Delhi. This may force Japan to put Delhi out of its strategic misery.

e)      Japan has been old partner of India. It has supported Delhi metro and Delhi Mumbai corridor hence more trustworthy and reliable if stimulate its investment perceiving rise of china. Overall beneficial to India from every corner.

Now this will be interesting to see what way this economic rivalry between China and Japan lead to Asia in particular and World in general and how much India make out of it by managing its partnership with Japan and relations (in perspective of infrastructural projects) with china in near future.